Traffic Accident Hotspots
Reported June 2007
COLUMBUS, Ohio (Ivanhoe Broadcast News) -- There are more than 6 million auto accidents each year in the United States. Last year, 3 million people were injured, and 43,000 killed. Now, police and scientists are teaming up to figure out where and when accidents may happen before they do happen.
Sgt. John Maxey, from the Ohio State Highway Patrol, knows the reality of speeding, drunk driving, reckless driving. He's had to tell family after family their loved one is never coming home. "That's something you never get used to," Maxey says.
One hundred fifteen people die every day in car crashes in the United States -- that's one death every 13 minutes. Now statisticians are teaming up with law enforcement to try and predict the next traffic accident hotspot.
Lt. Anthony Bradshaw, from the Ohio State Highway Patrol, says, "We wanted to try and predict where these crashes are going to occur. Not specifically that you're going to be involved in a crash in a specific time, date and place, but if you're more likely to be involved in a specific crash during a specific time, date and place."
Christopher Holloman, Ph.D., and his colleagues at the Ohio State University created a predictive statistical computer model. It incorporates information about alcohol, speeding and time of day to find out when drivers are most at risk. "We looked in those data for consistent patterns," Dr. Holloman says.
The computer model shows the roads with the most fatal accidents in the entire state and in specific cities. "The highest risk for alcohol-related crashes is Saturday and Sunday mornings around 2-3 am," Dr. Holloman explains.
The computer model shows the roads with the most fatal accidents in the entire state and in specific cities. "The highest risk for alcohol-related crashes is Saturday and Sunday mornings around 2-3 am," Dr. Holloman explains.
In Ohio, the most speeding accidents happen during weekday rush hours. The model also reveals surprising facts about holidays. Dr. Holloman says, "There's a really high risk of alcohol-related crashes early in the morning on the day before a long weekend." So, if Labor Day is on a Monday, drivers are at highest risk for a crash the Friday before the holiday. The model also shows the deadliest month to drive is July, and the least deadly is February.
Knowing this information, police can position themselves in dangerous areas, at peak accident times in hopes of stopping an accident before someone gets hurt. This software is currently being used in Ohio, but can be adapted for any state. A key to making it work is the quality of accident data reported by police departments.
The American Mathematical Society and the Mathematical Association of contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.
Click here to Go Inside This Science or contact:
The Ohio State University
Christopher H. Holloman, Ph.D.
614-292-0738
holloman.5@osu.edu
For more information on how math drives software programs:
American Mathematical Society
Providence, RI 02904-2294
1-800-321-4267
http://www.ams.org
Mathematical Association of America
Washington, DC 20036-1358
1-800-741-9415
http://www.maa.org
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