Summer Forecast: La Niņa

Reported July 2006

CAMP SPRINGS, Md. (Ivanhoe Broadcast News) -- Batten down the hatches! Forecasters are warning of another powerful hurricane season.

"NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, of which 8 to 10 we expect to become hurricanes," says Gerry Bell, Ph.D., a meteorologist at NOAA/National Weather Service in Camp Springs, Maryland.

Many factors cause all this ocean chaos and affect hurricanes. But this year, meteorologists have detected a La Niņa, or a cooling of Pacific Ocean water, that may have a little or a lot of influence on this year's storms.

Bell says, "La Niņa is very effective at producing conditions that hurricanes really like, and it definitely helps to produce an active season."

La Niņa's cooler waters generally produce more uniform wind patterns in the tropics, making it easier for hurricanes to form and strengthen.

"Hurricanes require a small change in winds in order to form," Bell says. But don't be caught off guard. La Nina is only one factor in hurricane formation. Experts predict up to six major storms this year -- so plan ahead. Preparing for nature's wrath now, could help you survive a storm later.

El Niņo is the warming of Pacific Ocean water ... La Niņa is a cooling of those waters. La Niņas usually occur every three to five years and during the winter produce wetter-than-normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest and dryer- and warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the Mid-Atlantic states.

Click here to Go Inside This Science or contact:

NOAA/National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
Camp Springs, MD
(301) 763-8000

The American Meteorological Society
Boston, MA 02108-3693
(617) 227-2425
http://www.ametsoc.org

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